注册 登录  
 加关注
查看详情
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

吴老师的个人主页

Where there is a will, there is a way.

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

年过半百,经历坎坷.少年遇"文革",下乡八载,虽历经磨难,唯斗志不减,农耕间隙自学不辍,终守得云开日出,考进大学.大学毕业后先后经历了中学执教,国企管理,外企高管,最后回归重执教鞭.目前在家精心培养有志掌握英语的中小学生. 我最大的愿望就是看到孩子学有所成,桃李天下.

我新发表的文章《我们的美国国债安全吗?》  

2013-11-04 11:19:56|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

前言:美国人欠了我们将近1.3万亿美元的钱,而且照现在的趋势,美国人还要继续大笔借钱,因为,在两党达成临时妥协后的第二天,美国就新增了3280亿美元债务,而且,根据两党的协议,在明年2月7日之前,国会将不再像以往一样设定债务上限,而只是允许借钱的最后日期,这意味着,美国政府在此期限前可以任意借钱,多少不限!按照现在的借钱速度,18万亿乃至20万亿美元都为期不远了,而还钱越来越成为童话故事了。

那么,美国人是否会赖账呢?如果赖账,不是意味着中国人的血汗钱将化为乌有?如果真赖账,当然是尸骨无剩。但目前,这还只是理论上的可能,因为如果美国真的债务违约,最大的受害者是美国自己,因为国债的主要债主还是美国人民,几乎所有美国人都是债主,因为美国的退休基金都是债权人。此外,美国一旦债务违约,其信用评级立即成为垃圾,美元将一夜之内成为废纸,美国的国际霸主地位立即终止,美国甚至会陷入内战,本来就有相当独立性的各州(state)可能宣布独立,成为真正的国家(state)。所以,不到山穷水尽花落去之时,美国是不敢违约的。

但不想发生不等于不会发生。从目前美国的现实来看,没有任何“柳暗花明又一村”的迹象。两党恶斗实际已经使华盛顿陷入了功能失灵(dysfunction)的境地。经济没有大的起色,即使有,收入的增速也永远赶不上借钱的速度,日益膨胀的债务已经透支了美国所有的未来!中国人借给美国实际上就是所谓的“Hobson’s choice (霍布森的选择,既别无选择的选择)。

中国最应提防的不是美国公开赖账,而是使奸让中国的债务实际上贬值乃至一钱不值。这绝非不可能的。

Are our U.S.loans safe?

 

Wu Guangqiang

AMERICAN politicians have just presented the world with another eerie episode of partisan melee, characterized with absurd plots like the government shutdown, back and forth bickering, and, the best part, the brinkmanship of the last-minute deal between the two parties that allows the government to reopen until Jan. 15 and allows the Treasury to borrow until Feb. 7.

Despite the unpredictable details, how the story will develop is known to everyone. More money will be borrowed and there will be a greater likelihood for a default. Just one day after the bipartisan deal, the U.S. debt surged a record US$328 billion, climbing to a new high: US$17.075 trillion. The one-day increase of US$328 billion to the U.S. debt load smashed the previous record of US$238 billion set two years ago.

Never have the nations in the world, particularly for holders of U.S. debt, been more nervous about possible U.S. insolvency than now. As America’s largest foreign creditor, China has every reason to worry about its hard-earned money’s security. The latest data shows that America owes about US$1.27 trillion to China, accounting for about 7.6 percent of U.S. total national debt and 35 percent of China’s foreign exchange reserve.

China’s official news agency, Xinhua, issued a strident commentary in English on Oct. 13 titled “U.S. Fiscal Failure Warrants A De-Americanized World,” which contained a thinly veiled criticism that “a self-serving Washington has abused its superpower status and introduced even more chaos into the world by shifting financial risks overseas…”

Perhaps out of a debtor’s diffidence, neither American politicians nor American media responded strongly to China’s harsh critique, and instead, U.S. President Barack Obama reiterated America’s commitment to repaying all its debts.

Still, an intention of fulfilling a task is one thing, but the capability of doing it is another. Though it seems like slim chances for a superpower like America to default on its debt, a close look at the lunacy and the increasingly apparent political dysfunction in Washington indicates that nothing is impossible. All signs are showing that things are getting out of hand.

Congress usually sets a borrowing limit, or debt ceiling, that caps the total amount the government funds can be in the red. “But under the terms of this week’s deal, Congress set a deadline instead of a dollar cap,” according to a recent report in The Washington Times. “That means debt will rise by as much as the government spends between now and the Feb. 7 deadline.”

If the rate of spending continues as it has over the last five months, U.S. debt may eventually increase by as much as US$700 billion before the government must apply for another increase to the debt ceiling. So US$18 trillion or US$20 trillion in red is not that distant away.

This is more than a buck passing game; it’s a time bomb passing game.

Given the mounting risks of an American default, why doesn’t China unload American bonds? “It’s easier said than done,” as China’s Global Times groaned in an editorial on Oct. 18. Dwelling on the obstacles to China’s mass sales of U.S. debt, the article boiled its argument down to two points: Chinese and American economies are too tightly intertwined for either side to ditch the other, and at least for now American national bonds are still the best choice in asset investment for China’s oversized foreign exchange reserve. An article in Time magazine, titled “China Got Into Bed With the U.S. Treasury and Can’t Get Out,” seemed to be snickering over China’s helplessness as the creditor and America’s elation as the debtor.

To me, holding American debt is nothing but a Hobson’s choice, a harsh sort of “take it or leave it.” On the one hand, America’s lingering global political and economic dominance leaves China no choice but to continue in this dance with America. On the other hand, Uncle Sam’s declining clout seems to be putting our money along with its own on the line.

America’s default means the end of the nation’s credibility and its status as the only superpower of the world, and, worst of all, millions of American debtors’ bankruptcy along with overseas debtors’, so the U.S. will do everything possible to prevent that from happening. But the worst scenario for China is America’s possible machinations to make our money lose value without defaulting on its debt.

I don’t think China is so naive as to not prepare for the worst outcome. However, I cannot believe that a U.S. child’s innocent remark of “killing every Chinese to avoid repaying the money” in a notorious Jimmy Kimmel show reflects some Americans’ real idea.

 

(The author is an English tutor and a freelance writer.)

 

 

  评论这张
 
阅读(102)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

在LOFTER的更多文章

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2018