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Where there is a will, there is a way.

 
 
 

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年过半百,经历坎坷.少年遇"文革",下乡八载,虽历经磨难,唯斗志不减,农耕间隙自学不辍,终守得云开日出,考进大学.大学毕业后先后经历了中学执教,国企管理,外企高管,最后回归重执教鞭.目前在家精心培养有志掌握英语的中小学生. 我最大的愿望就是看到孩子学有所成,桃李天下.

我新发表的文章《经济再平衡,痛苦但无可避免》  

2013-07-08 09:08:51|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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前言:中国经济结构严重失衡,这是不争的事实,各种资源错配的情况非常严重,如果不实现再平衡,后果严重。所以,李克强新班子的任务非常艰巨。

Painful rebalancing is inevitable

 

Wu Guangqiang

DISCOURAGING news about China’s economy seems to have been hitting the headlines since the beginning of this year.

Newly released HSBC/Markit data showed that the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI for June hit a nine-month low of 48.3 percent. Foreign trade growth dropped sharply in May. Recently, China’s money markets have been plagued with a “cash crunch,” reminding many of images of the United States after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Interbank rates of various sorts temporarily soared to record highs. The panic at monetary markets soon spilled over to the stock markets. On June 24, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.3 percent to close at 1,963.24 points, the largest daily decline since Aug. 31, 2009, when the index dropped by 6.74 percent.

Whenever China suffers an economic slowdown, some will clamor for government bailout plans. Banks that have been living on the proverbial Easy Street — making profits by exploiting excess liquidity — are crying for the release of more liquidity, and cash-strapped local governments are pushing the Central Government to loosen its grip on property markets.

Yet, rather than taking expedient measures to boost growth rates, the Chinese Government has so far showed no intention of repeating the old ways of stimulating the economy by expanding investment, exports and unnecessary public expenditure.

China’s new leadership is sober-minded and resolute when assessing the situation and making decisions. The Central Government’s stance on the liquidity crunch was clearly reflected in a speech by Premier Li Keqiang on June 19. He proposed to “optimize the allocation of financial resources by making full use of incremental liquidity and tapping idle assets.” He had mentioned “idle assets,” or money supply stock, on several previous occasions, indicating that he was well aware of the real risks threatening China’s financial and economic system: not a liquidity shortage, but an irrational allocation of financial resources, namely too much money in speculative activities and too little in the real economy. The threat posed by so-called shadow financing is grave, and it is the inundation of nonbank lending that is responsible for the surge in short-term lending rates. The rates returned to normal soon.

The size of the “money supply stock” is alarming. According to data released by the central bank, as of the end of May, the RMB deposit balance had hit 99.31 trillion yuan (US$16.11 trillion), up 16.2 percent year on year; M2 balance was at 104.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.8 percent. Instead of entering the real economy, borrowed money has been used in the game of “money breeding money.” Banks are addicted to chasing higher returns through wealth-management products. As a result, risks of a financial crisis are building up and many sectors in real need of funds — such as small businesses, farming enterprises, advanced manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and service industries — are thirsty for money. Pricking the bubbles in sectors like housing and banking will be risky, but allowing the bubbles to keep inflating would be disastrous for the Chinese economy.

Basically, China’s economy is seriously imbalanced as a result of a long-term policy of pursuing high GDP growth rates. Huge overcapacity is afflicting heavy industries such as steel, coal and cement; local governments are still relying heavily on revenues from selling land or levying housing-related taxes; farmers’ interests are still prone to being infringed upon by greedy local officials and developers; urban residents are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain basic services such as education, medical care and housing. All these issues boil down to one problem: misallocations of resources. Rebalancing China’s economy is urgent.

It’s not too late to do the job, but any hesitation or miscalculation could ruin the chances of success. Slower growth rates are acceptable given the fact that current economic fundamentals are basically sound and healthy and potential for further growth is far from exhausted — growing spending power and massive urbanization programs will enable China to sustain solid growth rates for at least another two decades.

China must face up to the harsh challenges ahead and push forward with economic restructuring in a cautious and well-controlled manner, to usher in a new era of development.

 

(The author is an English tutor and a freelance writer.)

 

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